Policy
The laws, regulations, and institutional decisions that govern the American financial system.
The SEC classifies crypto staking-as-a-service as an unregistered security under the 1946 Howey test. This guide explains the four-prong analysis, enforcement against Kraken and Coinbase, the Ethereum paradox, and the self-staking safe harbor.
Interest rates will not return to zero. R-star — the neutral rate — has permanently risen due to fiscal deficits, deglobalization, and demographics. This guide explains why 3% mortgages are over.
The CPI's shelter component lags real-time rents by 12-18 months, distorting the headline inflation number. This guide explains CPI methodology, owners' equivalent rent, and supercore — the inflation measure Powell actually watches.
The Sahm Rule triggers when the unemployment rate's 3-month average rises 0.50 points above its 12-month low — identifying every recession since 1970 with zero false positives. This guide explains the mechanics and investment implications.
Regional banks hold $1.9 trillion in CRE loans — 70% of all commercial real estate debt. With office vacancy above 20%, this guide explains capital ratio arithmetic, extend-and-pretend, and the Fed's contagion prevention toolkit.
The President cannot fire the Fed Chair at will — the Federal Reserve Act requires "for cause" removal, the courts enforce it, and the bond market punishes any attempt to politicize monetary policy.
The SEC is prosecuting "AI washing" — false or exaggerated claims about AI use by companies and investment advisers. This guide explains the three forms of AI washing, SEC investigation methods, and how investors can verify AI claims.
The SEC requires public companies to disclose material cyber breaches on Form 8-K within four business days. This guide explains the materiality standard, national security exception, weaponization by ransomware groups, and annual governance requirements.
Proposals for 24/7 stock exchanges face liquidity, settlement, and market-maker challenges that crypto markets don't share. This guide explains the DTCC clearinghouse problem, spread widening, and why weekend trading costs more than investors expect.
Greenhushing — corporations quietly reducing climate disclosures to avoid legal and political attack — is reshaping the information environment for investors. This guide explains the ESG backlash, litigation risk, and the SEC's diluted climate rule.
The SEC protects investors through mandatory corporate disclosure, enforcement against insider trading and fraud, and oversight of exchanges and broker-dealers. This guide explains the full regulatory architecture.