Federal Reserve
The central bank of the United States and the monetary policy that shapes the economy.
Interest rates will not return to zero. R-star — the neutral rate — has permanently risen due to fiscal deficits, deglobalization, and demographics. This guide explains why 3% mortgages are over.
The CPI's shelter component lags real-time rents by 12-18 months, distorting the headline inflation number. This guide explains CPI methodology, owners' equivalent rent, and supercore — the inflation measure Powell actually watches.
The Sahm Rule triggers when the unemployment rate's 3-month average rises 0.50 points above its 12-month low — identifying every recession since 1970 with zero false positives. This guide explains the mechanics and investment implications.
Regional banks hold $1.9 trillion in CRE loans — 70% of all commercial real estate debt. With office vacancy above 20%, this guide explains capital ratio arithmetic, extend-and-pretend, and the Fed's contagion prevention toolkit.
The President cannot fire the Fed Chair at will — the Federal Reserve Act requires "for cause" removal, the courts enforce it, and the bond market punishes any attempt to politicize monetary policy.
In Policy