State Street Journal
Boston Financial Journal
Policy · Federal Reserve

Employment

The dual mandate, labor market indicators, and the full employment objective.

The Sahm Rule: When a Cooling Labor Market Becomes a Recession

The Sahm Rule triggers when the unemployment rate's 3-month average rises 0.50 points above its 12-month low — identifying every recession since 1970 with zero false positives. This guide explains the mechanics and investment implications.

Robert Kinney · BOSTON